The ongoing US-Iran war began on February 28, 2026. It originates from decades of hostility but was directly sparked by US and Israeli airstrikes during stalled nuclear talks. The conflict has caused heavy casualties, disrupted global energy supplies & threatens to push the world into recession.
Root Causes of War
Tensions date back to the 1979 Iranian Revolution, US support for Iraq during the 1980s war & Iran’s proxy networks that support groups like Hezbollah and Hamas, which oppose US allies. Things escalated after Israel’s airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025. Massive protests in Iran at the end of 2025 were crushed by Tehran’s forces, leading to a military buildup by Trump.
The Trump administration argued it needed to dismantle Iran’s alleged nuclear weapons program, ballistic missiles & threats to US bases, even though the IAEA found no proof of an active weapons program. The airstrikes led to the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei during ongoing Oman-brokered nuclear negotiations.
Military timeline
Operation Epic Fury began with nearly 900 US-Israeli strikes on Iranian military sites, nuclear facilities, and leadership on February 28, aligning with the start of Ramadan. Iran responded with Operation True Promise IV, launching hundreds of drones and missiles at Israel, US bases in Gulf states such as Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Saudi Arabia & allies such as Jordan. This escalation led to the simultaneous 2026 Lebanon war with Hezbollah. By early April 2026, over five weeks in, Trump claimed that major goals like neutralizing missiles were near completion however, hostilities continued with plans for more strikes.
Impacts on USA and Iran
In the US, the war has resulted in at least seven service member deaths and costs of $18 billion in the first three weeks, with an additional $200 billion requested. The conflict has strained an already shaky economy amid tariffs and inflation. In Iran, the regime faces possible collapse, thousands of IRGC deaths and civilian casualties, including over 1,100 children hurt or killed across the region. There are widespread infrastructure outages and damage to cultural sites like Golestan Palace, which UNESCO has labeled as war crimes. The losses for proxy forces include over 1,000 militant and civilian deaths for Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Global Repercussions
Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have sustained direct hits on bases and refineries, while Qatar has shut down its Ras Laffan gas facility. Europe has stepped up defenses with the UK intercepting drones, Turkey bringing down missiles & Cyprus facing strikes. Aviation has come to a halt, tourism has crashed & the clashes between Hezbollah and Israel have spread into Syria and Iraq. UN resolutions have condemned Iran’s retaliation in the Gulf but also criticized the initial US strikes as violations of sovereignty. The broader fallout weakens the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as Iran considers withdrawal following the attacks on its nuclear sites.
Economic Fallout
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran cut global oil supplies, causing Brent crude to spike by over 39% potentially reaching $190 per barrel in a prolonged scenario. This has halved oil inventories and led to a 7.7% increase in world inflation. A six-month blockade, according to Oxford Economics, could reduce global GDP by 1.4% in 2026, cutting US and European growth by 1.2 points. China’s growth could drop to 3.4%, and Asia would face the toughest impacts due to diesel shortages in logistics. The US anticipates $3.7 billion in initial unbudgeted costs, a 20% drop in equity & policy challenges for the Fed. The Gulf could see an 8% decrease in GDP before any recovery.
Impact On Indian Econmoy
The US-Iran conflict has sharply raised oil prices, fueling inflation and weakening the rupee in India, a major net importer of energy. Private sector growth has slowed, with manufacturing hitting a 4.5-year low amid higher input costs ,Crude prices have jumped over 40% since late February 2026, pushing India’s import bill higher and widening the trade deficit by 40-50 basis points per $10/barrel rise. This strains fiscal balances through fuel tax adjustments and hikes logistics costs via elevated freight and insurance premiums in the Gulf but still Indain Reservoir and its Diplomacy doing their best to protect any negative impact of this war in indian Economy ..
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